Friday, January 11, 2008

Kent Watkins Memo on his Iowa Caucus Experience


ANATOMY OF AN IOWAN 2008 CAUCUS EXPERIENCE AND BEYOND

My name is Kent Watkins from Washington, D.C. (kent.watkins@yahoo.com). I was raised as an Iowa Hawkeye, became a political junkie in Washington, D.C., a public administration wonk, and have been a policy guru of sorts. I was privileged to have been part of the Maryland delegation that went to Cedar Rapids last week and participated in the campaign leading up to and then observing the caucus. This is a pastiche of what I experienced at one of the 1781 precincts. Others had different experiences; all are valid.
For example, the outcome I came away with was that -- as reported by CNN, Des Moines Register, AP, and others --Hillary had taken 15 of the 45 Iowa delegates to the nominating convention, while Obama, 16 and Edwards, 14. That seemed pretty darn close to me, almost a tie. And that left Hillary, as the Associated Press further stated, “In the overall race for delegates, Clinton leads with 175, followed by Obama with 75 and Edwards with 46.” Just as the media and others seem to focus on the national voting figures, I look at the electoral college votes, and in this case, keep my eye on the ball with regard to the convention score needed, including superdelegates. Only time will tell how other factors, perception included, will affect that. But, that is what I saw in Iowa, leaving aside all the other media ‘stuff’.

The above numbers report the macro level; the following is a ‘worms-eye’ view of one caucus, in Central City, Iowa, where I was assigned.
Pre-Caucus Activities

I arrived in Moline, Ill., the least expensive fly-in alternative at that point to my destination of Cedar Rapids, Ia., on New Year’s Eve, on the last plane before the airport was shut down for a blinding snowstorm. My luggage did not arrive with me. Here is a photo of the auto I had rented!

The drive to Cedar Rapids, normally about 2 hours or less, was nearly twice that due to the unplowed Interstate, the low visibility, the ice, and the sobering look out the window at the overturned semi-trailer trucks and cars along the side of the highway. I did arrive safely, however, and the last part of the trip, the storm had not occurred at all.

The next couple of days were spent canvassing, lining up drivers for the caucus, attending meetings at headquarters, meeting other workers and caucus-goers, and being re-acquainted with the weather (-10 windchill in some instances) and the City itself, where I had visited my grandparents as a kid.
In the morning, some of us would have a fresh peach cinnamon roll across the street from the Five Seasons hotel (where did the fifth season come from - regular winter and Iowa winter, perhaps?), which Peg served with a latte. Then, buy a Des Moines
Register, a Cedar Rapids Gazette, and the New York Times(!) to devour the most recent political news as the media concocted it.
Training Room, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Hillary Clinton Headquarters / Exterior













Md. Delegation ‘hq.’ for assignments, etc.














2235 Upland Dr., S.E., my grandparents' house

View from my hotel room of Quaker Oats Company, Cedar Rapids, Iowa


Presidential Candidates Hit Cedar Rapids One Day before C-Day

On Wednesday, Jan. 2, Hillary came to town! Over 700 person showed up, and she gave a stirring talk about her experience, with specific examples, and how this would impact most favorably on her plans for change. The talk was held in bone-chilling weather, at a recreation center of a junior college on the outskirts of center city. That same day, six other presidential candidates were in town!
I didn't get to see any other rallies and it was so strange that no visible presence of the other campaigns were around town. A few signs other than Hillary's but where were the headquarters of Obama, Edwards, Dodd (I did finally see his away from the business district quite a ways), Richardson, etc.

Former Governor Vilsack, Hillary Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton


Caucus Assignment

I was assigned a caucus location at Central City, a town about 30 miles outside of Cedar Rapids. I looked it up in my 1938 WPA American Guide Series and it said, “837 altitude, 780 population, is a trading center for farmers within a 10-mile radius, most of whom live on modern, well-stocked farms. It is a terminal for the C.M.St.P.&P.R.R. The East Star Mill erected nearby on the bank of the Wapsipinicon River in 1863, is still in use for grinding grain.”

The current non-WPA version from Google led me to the City’s website, which said that there were now 1157 ‘smiling faces’ in this ‘quaint’ river town, located in the heart of the ‘industrial belt of Iowa, and that we should ‘come experience the quiet beauty of our scenic Wapsipinicon Valley…where you can fish, go canoeing, hike a nature trail at one of several parks, camp under the stars, ride bikes or horses along the wooded bluffs…Are you tempted yet?”

Well, not at this time, thank you.


The temperature had risen to about 10 plus degrees as I drove north on Highway 13, with snow-covered fields and iced lakes where I saw some boys who were walking on it while looking through fishing holes they had drilled in the ice. The website had not mentioned that sport. I then crossed the bridge over the frozen Wapsipinicon River and drove into the center of town.

I was a bit early, deliberately, to make sure I wouldn’t miss my assignment, and so took a windshield ride around the town. My first view was of Bubba’s Bar & Grill – doesn’t every town have one? Next to it was the Amvet bar and meeting place. On the other side was an old home now housing the Central City Historical Society. The streetlights were decorated still for the holidays, and a small gas station presented a conundrum for getting said product, given the parked cars in its lanes. A sign over the drug store on the corner said it had been there since 1929. A church loomed over another gas station down the streeet, and various gift shops, some closed, also lined the streets.

I found the one eatery in town, Montana CafĂ©, and went inside to get some dinner. No Iowa pork on the menu, which was one of the items I was looking forward on my visit and never was able to find, so I settled for broasted chicken and the salad bar. There were two young girls dressed in cheerleader outfits, hanging out, they said, with their mother. who was my waitperson and perhaps owner? Apparently, there was to be a basketball game at the high school at the same time as the caucus was being held next door in the cafeteria. Oh, great, I wonder which will have the larger attendance…

Arriving at the Caucus site, Observer and other Rules and Providing Rides

Approaching 5:30 p.m., I drove to the high school and was amazed at the number of cars that were already there. But, I was reminded of the dual use that night as I went into the wrong door and was re-directed by a high school student who was selling tickets for the basketball game. Down the street (the school had a linear addition), I saw only Clinton signs outside a door and was cheered by that. Inside, I found Jason Blevenhagen, the Clinton precinct captain, and presented myself. The cafeteria, a very large open space with a number of tables scattered throughout, already had quite a few persons at the Clinton, Obama, and Edwards stations.

The caucus chair came over to check me out and he turned out to be Mike Robinson, the Linn Co. Democratic party chairperson. So, this small town had some political clout! And he certainly would know the rules of the caucus. The first thing he did in my presence was to suggest to Jason that the food that had been delivered be taken outside and not utilized. The second thing he did was to make sure that I would follow my observer role and I replied that I would sit alongside the wall and do just that and no more, once things started.

Then, I conferred with Jason about the ride request I brought up with me. We jointly called Maurine, and although she had told hq that she didn’t need the ride, now she said she did, because her son was ill and could not perform the duty. So, Jason sent me with a local woman and we were able to bring one more delegate to the caucus! I felt good about that, because I thought maybe she might make a difference for maximizing the delegate count for Hillary. Four delegates were allowed for Central City and two for the township. Since they were two separate entities, there would have to be parallel processes and separate table areas in the cafeteria. Mike would be overall chair, coordinating the township chair, and he would also chair the Central City process.

As 6:30 approached for calling the caucus to order, he addressed the persons who had already registered and gathered at both precinct areas, milling about and greeting each other a bit warily even though neighbors, if in different camps. He warned some Edwards observers not to take such an active part in the waving of signs, giving instructions, etc., and eventually they retreated to the sidelines with me, albeit with some protest. I do not know if any or how many persons were independents or Republicans who temporarily registered as Democrats, as apparently was happening across the State that night.

Preliminary business

Mike told the assembled gathering that there would be some preliminary business, such as electing permanent chairs and secretaries for the two caucuses. Also, any resolutions to take to the County Convention on March 15 could be filled out now and sent up to him for review by the platform committee. He asked for volunteers for the Platform Committee and Committee on Committees, including alternates. He also said he would circulate two envelopes, the equivalent of passing the hat, for contributions to the County party and to the State party. He then proceeded to implement these items.

Candidate Preferences – 1st Round

At the designated 7 p.m. time for forming preference groups, registration ceased and Mike shifted to the business of candidate preferences. Most persons were already sitting around their designated ‘flag’ and so it was a matter of counting those. This took several iterations and methodologies (raising of hands, verbalizing a number by each person, others doing a silent count) because there was uncertainty raised in some instances.

Once the individual counts in both precinct groups were done, then Mike pared down the potential candidates by eliminating the 0 groups – Gravel, Dodd, Kucinich, and uncommitted. The rest would remain until it was determined which would reach the threshold of viability, a minimum number of members relative to the number of total attendees, in most cases 15 percent. Mike said that the Biden group was not viable (only himself) nor was the Richardson group of one. These must re-align within 30 minutes or leave.

Candidate Preferences – 2nd Round

At 7:15 p.m., Mike announced that the second round would commence for 30 minutes, and groups were free to “re-align”, i.e., entice or persuade others to join them from any other group. Mike announced he would join the Obama group. A few others moved from one group to the other, accompanied by pleas, claps, subsequent cheers and groans. One person was heard to say, ‘Honey, I love you, please join me!’ but I am not sure of the sequel.

Calculations for Delegates

By 7:30, the re-alignment was done. Central City was allowed four delegates, based on the voter turnout in the two previous general elections, and there were 87 total persons. Their formula for viability was .15 (15% of all participants) for four or more delegates, while the Township had only two delegates allotted, so their viability index was .25. This will become more clear in a New York nano-second.

Here is the breakdown* for the various camps who were now qualified:

* number in group times previous voting formula/divided by total # = viability index

Central City:

Clinton - 36 x 4/87 = 1.65
Obama - 20 x 4/87 = .919
Edwards - 31 x 4/87 = 1.425

Township: 38 total votes

Clinton - 11 x 2/38 = .578
Obama - 13 x 2/38 = .740
Edwards - 14 x 2/38 = .753

Allocating Delegates

Since there were four and two delegates respectively, Mike now went through the second math process of figuring out where they would be given. All three camps in Central City were given a delegate each through the process. The fourth was up for grabs and Clinton received this through the round-up process. For the Township, Obama and Edwards each got a delegate and Clinton was out in the cold. So, it became clear that by dividing the vote by areas and not combining them that, as in the electoral college process in the general election, the State-wide winner might not have the most votes, but have strategically had the most in various and sundry precincts. This may explain why the eventual delegate count, referred to in my first paragraph, turned out to be so close, with Clinton’s being only one fewer than Obama, and having one more than Edwards.

After the results were announced, the precincts chairs signed off on the count, and calls were made to their respective headquarters and to the official point. The Chair said that everyone could go, but he needed a few to stay to discuss the other business. A few did.

Conclusions

My feeling about the caucus process, which will repeat itself in many other States (Nevada, Hawaii, Maine, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, D.C., Wyoming) probably mirrors the NY Times article this past week: they are less democratic than primaries because of the time constraints, no ability to have absentee ballots, no secret ballot, etc. However, a high school classmate of mine who became the first woman mayor pro tem of Sioux City, Iowa, and now lives in California, says that she still thinks they are more democratic in their neighborly-ness. Only time will tell if there will be one national primary on the same day in every State, or whether there will still be hold-outs on dates and types, including conventions (Wyoming, West Virginia, and Nebraska, R).

And thanks to my trip to Hawkeye territory, I did get to see my grandparents’ house, visited the Museum of Art, where I bought a contemporary painting of The Little Church in the Vale (Nashua, Ia.) where my parents were married, and was given a tour of the Grant Wood Studio.



To those who went on to New Hampshire, I will be sending positive energy from future Hillary voters!




1/05/08